February 25, 2007
CELLULOID TOWER: ACADEMY AWARDS
Didn't get to see a lot of movies this year, so predictions coming out of Lexiphane.com HQ are going to be a little light regarding tonight's awards ceremony. Here's a smattering of notes, observations, and opinions about statuette distribution.
Actor In A Supporting Role
People love foul-mouthed old people who do inappropriate things like take drugs. They're funny! I'm inclined to tilt towards Alan Arkin in this category. On the other hand, Dreamgirls fell well short of its expected crop of nominations so I expect voters will go out of their way to favor Eddie Murphy in this category. The Academy seems besotted with black comedic actors who can manage any transition to a serious role (think Jamie Foxx.) It's rather condescending, but I expect that if Martin Lawrence could pull off a serious role in a period costume drama, he'd be on his way to at least a nomination. I enjoyed Mark Wahlberg in The Departed, but it was a rather one-note performance and I'm not sure if it's enough for a win.
Actress In A Supporting Role
This is a tough one. Jennifer Hudson has got that whole winning-"American Idol"-thing going for her and her performance in Dreamgirls was apparently enough to shove Beyonce Knowles out of the movie's limelight, a difficult thing to do given the latter's musical talent and drop dead good looks. There is the very young Abigail Breslin from Little Miss Sunshine. While her dancing skills may not rival Hudson's vocal abilities, she did play a strangely self-possessed little girl surrounded by manic adults very well. I would leave this one up to a coin toss, but am going to root for Breslin in the hopes that she accepts her awards with the shortest acceptance speech of all time: "In your face Dakota Fanning!" Still, I gotta give it to Hudson.
Actress In A Leading Role
Did not see any of these movies. Assume it will be Helen Mirren, who seems to have had a banner year that also includes an acclaimed performance in a BBC series where she plays an aged, but slutty and drunken police inspector.
Actor In A Leading Role
This is a brutally competitive category for a number of different reasons. Let's begin by discarding Ryan Gosling in Half Nelson, though, for the reason that no one saw it. Hollywood can't let an Oscar near a film that grossed only $2.7 million; they just can't do it. Unfortunately, that would also torpedo Peter O'Toole's chances, as Venus only grossed $1.2 million. That is only 20% of what the widely panned Gigli grossed in 2003. O'Toole is a beloved actor and nearly dead, while having never won an Academy Award. Sentimentality is his only saving chance, but I don't think it'll be enough. The conventional wisdom is that Forest Whitaker will win for The Last King of Scotland. I haven't seen it, but am inclined to agree in theory. Whitaker is a superb actor. Still, to stick with my prior theory, his film only did $9.6 million in box office. If most Americans haven't seen it, there's little reason for me to think Academy Members have given it significantly more attention (I hold them in very low esteem). That leaves us with two heavyweights: Leonardo DiCaprio and Will Smith, whose films did $54 million and $157 million, respectively. Smith has that whole black-comedian-turned-serious-actor thing going for him that I mentioned earlier. He's also been nominated before, so his winning would not be unprecedented. Plus he played a homeless single parent--that's triple bonus points. On the minus side, he overcame adversity to find financial success as a . . . stockbroker. Oooh, that's what takes him out of the running. Everyone knows that people in the financial industry are only capable of stealing money from widows and orphans, callously laying people off, or murdering people. That leaves us with Leonardo DiCaprio. I didn't see Blood Diamond, but I'm betting that voters give him the final nod for several reasons. They feel bad about passing him over for a Best Actor Oscar two years ago in The Aviator. He also played a lead role in the Best Picture-nominated The Departed. And Blood Diamond is about a socially conscious subject: conflict diamonds, but still is filled with beautiful actors and actresses and a shitload of violence. It's the trifecta that Hollywood can't say no to.
Best Director
This is where gamesmanship starts to come into play. Babel is going to win Best Picture and no one's heard of its director, so we can eliminate it. I think it's almost a dead heat between Martin Scorcese for The Departed and Clint Eastwood for Letters From Iwo Jima and I'm giving the nod to Eastwood for the win. Scorcese is certainly the sentimental favorite, but he will be declined. No one believes that Scorcese is going to stop making fantastic movies so there's always another day for him. Plus, his movie is a taut psychological thriller about cops and robbers? Not even the proximity of Jack Nicholson can convey the gravitas that Academy voters feel the need to convey, which is that they're doing important things. I haven't seen Eastwood's film, but I gather the film is about how war is a tragedy and even the enemy--no matter how genocidal or homicidal--is actually just like us on the inside. Awwww! Plus, an anti-war movie presents a perfect opportunity to give the metaphorical finger to the Bush administration, something Hollywood feels difficult passing up. And Eastwood is a crotchety but beloved Hollywood icon. No one will fault voters for handing him this accolade, or at least that's what they'll tell themselves as they avoid eye contact with Scorcese at the after parties.
Best Picture
Whoops, already gave this one away. It's going to be Babel for the reasons listed above regarding Blood Diamond (violence, beautiful actors and actresses, socially conscious). Also, Hollywood seems infatuated with the intertwining story line model that made the thoroughly mediocre Crash Best Picture last year. It allows Academy voters to mistake story structures that range from clever to absurd as profound, which makes them feel good about themselves for getting it. Little Miss Sunshine is a huge favorite in this category, but the writer/directors are Hollywood newbies. They'll be given the consolation prize of Best Original Screenplay. This is ironic, because there's little original about Little Miss Sunshine. I certainly enjoyed it; it was a cute picture with a talented cast. The story, however was hackneyed, shopworn, and executed better in my opinion in the very recent past. Come on, a roadtrip movie of funny quirky dysfunctional characters that becomes a journey of discovery and personal redemption? Didn't anybody see Pieces of April, The Daytrippers, or even National Lampoon's Family Vacation?
To recap in short:
Best Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson
Best Actress: Helen Mirren
Best Actor: Leonardo DiCaprio
Best Director: Clint Eastwood
Best Picture: Babel
Bear in mind that these are not my personal picks, but a purely cynical analysis handicap of expected results.
Tagged:Posted by Lexiphane at February 25, 2007 4:11 PM
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